the urgency of zero

In order to avoid disastrous environmental consequences, it is essential that we achieve the ambition of the Paris Agreement: to hold average global temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, whilst pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. To do this, we must reach net zero emissions by mid-century.

While the Paris Agreement sets a global objective, action towards this common goal is driven at the national level, with each party being responsible for setting and delivering their own policies to achieve it. While there may be different approaches to attaining net zero, it is important that these plans adhere to a common set of principles.

Speed is crucial – we need to combine long-term net zero commitments with immediate action and short-term interim targets. Every year of delay before initiating emission reductions reduces the time available to reach net zero emissions while keeping below 1.5 °C by approximately two years. This urgency necessitates rapid and drastic action.

“There are sound scientific and economic reasons to reduce emissions as much and as fast as possible” (Fankhauser et al, 2022)

Net zero strategies need to be implemented now – delivering mitigation benefits takes time. In addition, the efficacy of many strategies is time-sensitive. The contribution of Nature-based Solutions, for example, to limiting peak-warming will diminish as warming and other climate-driven risks compromise the restoration of ecosystems and long-term carbon storage.

Net zero commitments should not be considered as replacements to urgent and comprehensive emissions cuts – we must tackle all emissions, including those from the most difficult sectors (e.g. food, agriculture, aviation and mining), to effectively combat climate change. Decarbonising industries and investing in clean energy (renewable, nuclear and hydrogen sources) is central to most emission reduction strategies and, together with carbon capture and storage technologies, could deliver over 70% of the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero by 2050. Emissions cuts are also expected to emerge through behavioural (e.g. diet and transport) changes on the consumer level, and are predicted to deliver 11% of the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero by 2050.

Although less established than incumbent technologies and infrastructures, zero-carbon solutions are present in most sectors. Despite often being costly, their long-term uptake is vital in achieving net zero. Front-loading emission reductions is essential in terms of addressing the immediate challenges of climate change. By reducing emissions early on, we can slow rates of warming and the severity of its consequences. This also preserves optionality, allowing for the adjustment of carbon budgets and emission reduction targets as new findings emerge.