Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because of the mix of climate pollutants it generates. Here, we model the CO2 and non-CO2 effects like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation’s total warming footprint. Aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO2. Aviation is projected to cause a total of about 0.1 °C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next three decades, should aviation’s pre-COVID growth resume. The industry would then contribute a 6%–17% share to the remaining 0.3 °C–0.8 °C to not exceed 1.5 °C–2 °C of global warming. Under this scenario, the reduction due to COVID-19 to date is small and is projected to only delay aviation’s warming contribution by about five years. But the leveraging impact of growth also represents an opportunity: aviation’s contribution to further warming would be immediately halted by either a sustained annual 2.5% decrease in air traffic under the existing fuel mix, or a transition to a 90% carbon-neutral fuel mix by 2050.
Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming
Publication details
The urgency of zero
Research paper
Allen, Myles
2021
Latest news

Oxford Net Zero partners with AXA XL on research in India, Mexico and Kenya
Oxford Net Zero is excited to announce that it is working with the insurance company AXA XL, the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society (InSIS), and the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment to conduct research on private sector ... Read more

Finance, Fossil Fuels and $10 coffee: Reflections on COP29
As we begin a new year, Oxford Net Zero looks back on the highs and lows of November's climate summit in Baku. In some ways, this COP was different. The venue was smaller than in previous years, which meant that attendees could have genuine ... Read more

Oxford Net Zero announces affiliation with Reuben College
Oxford Net Zero is pleased to announce an affiliation with Reuben College. This new strategic partnership will allow us to collaborate more closely on environmental change, which we are both working to address as a core objective. Professor ... Read more
See more news and events