As we begin a new year, Oxford Net Zero looks back on the highs and lows of November’s climate summit in Baku.
In some ways, this COP was different. The venue was smaller than in previous years, which meant that attendees could have genuine “water cooler conversations”, as ONZ’s Dr Injy Johnstone put it. Prof Sam Fankhauser, who was at COP for the first time since 2007, said that the event was “much bigger but also much more diverse” than other COPs he’d attended. There were more Global South attendees this year, after organisers made a concerted effort to shift the balance of badge access towards attendees from developing countries. One unwelcome surprise was the high price of food and drink at the venue – if you wanted coffee with your water cooler conversation, it was going to cost you dearly, and food prices were even worse. This created real difficulty for some delegates from less wealthy nations.
In other ways, this COP was similar to so many that have gone before. COP29 was the finance COP, and money proved to be a sticking point yet again – to the anger and frustration of developing countries. Prof Thomas Hale, who led the Oxford delegation, described the eventual agreement as “the barest of minimums on finance”. In the lead-up to the COP29 negotiations on a new global climate finance goal, also known as the New Quantified Collective Goal on Climate Finance, developing countries said that they needed at least $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035 – a demand backed up by leading economists. In the end, the agreed text pledged $300 billion a year by 2035, with a goal to raise $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 from both public and private sources. A definition of what kind of funding can actually be counted as climate finance was due to be agreed this year; instead, it was delayed until COP30. As Prof Hale said, “the outcome shows how many countries are failing to take the path of enlightened self-interest and invest in their citizens’ security”.
As with previous COPs, fossil fuel executives registered to attend in large numbers. This year there were at least 1,773 granted access, according to analysis by the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition. Nations heavily reliant on the production of fossil fuels also exerted their influence. Even before COP29 began, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia and Russia were believed to be acting to frustrate progress on the UAE Consensus, which lays out a commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Last year nearly 200 countries pledged to embark on this transition at COP28. At COP29, agreement on the text was effectively blocked.
But there were bright spots too. For Oxford Net Zero, one of the highlights of this COP was the privilege of sending five young change-makers to attend the summit. Renata Varea, Seruni Salsabila, Zachary Lubin, Malkia John and Camilo Maldonado were all participants in this year’s Global Youth Climate Training programme, a collaboration between Oxford Net Zero, the Global Youth Coalition and the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. Thanks to generous funding from the ClimateWorks Foundation, Oxford Net Zero and the Smith School were able to provide bursaries for them to participate in person in Baku. They contributed their expertise in a range of areas, including Loss and Damage finance for the Pacific; gender-sensitive climate policy and inclusive and youth-led solutions to climate change; youth participation in climate finance processes; and climate and adaptation finance to promote resilience.
Renata, Malkia, Seruni, Camilo and Zach pose in front of the COP29 hashtag in Baku.
Reflecting on her time in Baku, Seruni Salsabila pointed to both positives and negatives. For her, “The participation of youth was a strong point at COP29, with vibrant discussions and actions taking place in the Pavilions.” Unfortunately, youth were often left out of key negotiations. As she explained, “Despite our best efforts, youth voices were largely sidelined in key discussions, including the NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal) negotiations. Drafts continued to exclude us until the final stages.” Seruni drafted and led an intervention at the closing plenary, giving a powerful speech on behalf of young people frustrated with the COP29 process and outcome.
Camilo Maldonado supported the Paraguayan delegation at COP29 and focused on representing the interests of the Global South in climate finance discussions. He described his participation in COP as “transformative”. What he learned has “directly informed” his work that aims to “empower Paraguayan youth in climate action and COP processes.” His “long-term goal of fostering a generation of informed and active climate leaders in the Global South” will be supported by the connections he was able to make with other organisations at COP.
Zachary Lubin attended COP as a representative of various organisations that promote the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and he also focused on developments in Loss and Damage finance for the Pacific region. For him, one of the best parts of COP was the opportunity to meet other change-makers from around the world and learn about their work: “The combination of creativity and simplicity demonstrates the power that can stem from a single idea…Access to resources and capacity building may be limited, but there are so many ways to work around those barriers or find the tools and funding necessary to be successful.” Zach has written a series of posts on LinkedIn about the highs, lows and practical challenges of his time in Baku. Visit his profile to read more.
You can also read reflections from Malkia and Renata on their LinkedIn profiles.
A major development at COP29 was the conclusion of Article 6 negotiations after nearly a decade of discussion. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement governs the establishment and implementation of carbon markets. Article 6.2, which allows countries to trade carbon credits, and Article 6.4, which creates a global carbon market, were finalised and agreed early in the summit. Dr Injy Johnstone, an expert on Article 6, carbon offsetting and carbon removals, followed the negotiations closely. Speaking to the Financial Times about the Article 6 agreement, she said, “The deal leaves a lot of trust in the hands of [countries] which is a problem because the rules themselves are not yet net zero [emissions] aligned”. As she said to the Guardian, “The new rules are a start, but the risk of abuse remains alive and well. We have to learn the lessons of past mistakes and watch for new ones this system could create, otherwise we risk the Paris agreement becoming a market failure”.
Dr Injy Johnstone speaks at a roundtable hosted by Goals House.
Away from the finance and Article 6 negotiations, country pavilions hosted a huge number of events. Oxford Net Zero co-hosted two expert panel discussions at the Ukraine Pavilion – one on retaining the integrity of net zero in conflict-affected countries, and another on Ukraine’s path to net zero. ONZ Associate Dr Ievgeniia Kopytsia played a key role in these events, contributing her expertise on the “climate-peace-nexus”. For her, the Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery was “both promising and lacking. It rightly acknowledged the interplay between climate change, conflict and humanitarian crises…However, it fell short of actionable commitments, particularly in financing mechanisms for fragile and conflict-affected states like Ukraine, where the war has compounded climate risks and strained critical infrastructure”. In the end, she said, the Baku Call was “largely symbolic”.
We will be watching closely to see what 2025 brings.
Dr Ievgeniia Kopytsia speaks during a panel discussion at the Ukraine Pavilion.
Join members of Oxford Net Zero and the Oxford delegation for a COP29 debrief on 21 January at 12:30 GMT. Read more and sign up here.
Check out our dedicated COP29 page for events, publications and links to video content.
Cover photo: the Heydar Aliyev Center in Baku. Photo by B&W Studio on Unsplash.
