National ‘fair shares’ in reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the principled framework of international environmental law

Aug 1, 2023

This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances, common but differentiated responsibilities and equity), some NDCs justify their contributions on the basis of indicators not backed by such principles (indicators including small share of global emissions (for states that are not LDCs and SIDSs), least cost pathways, and emissions per GDP). These insights are used to select a sub-set of approaches to the quantification of national fair share emissions targets among approaches previously surveyed in the literature. This leads to the exclusion of approaches based on cost and grandfathering. Next, the principles of harm prevention and precaution, and the normative pillars of the climate change regime, including its objective, ‘progression’, and ‘highest possible ambition,’ and the norms relating to human rights, are engaged to argue for further narrowing the range of national fair shares such that the sum of individual contributions is collectively compatible with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. This leads to the finding that developed states have a Paris temperature goal compatible emission level in 2030 that is net-negative. Of the G20 states, only India and Indonesia can temporarily increase their emissions relative to 2010, only India relative to today. Around half the G20 states have increased emissions over the 2010s, and those decreasing emissions have done so too slowly.

Publication details
Theme(s)
Net zero & sustainable development
Type(s)
Research paper
Author(s)
Rajamani, Lavanya
Year(s)
2021
Climate Policy

Latest news

Oxford Net Zero partners with AXA XL on research in India, Mexico and Kenya
Oxford Net Zero partners with AXA XL on research in India, Mexico and Kenya

Oxford Net Zero is excited to announce that it is working with the insurance company AXA XL, the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society (InSIS), and the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment to conduct research on private sector ... Read more

Finance, Fossil Fuels and $10 coffee: Reflections on COP29
Finance, Fossil Fuels and $10 coffee: Reflections on COP29

As we begin a new year, Oxford Net Zero looks back on the highs and lows of November's climate summit in Baku. In some ways, this COP was different. The venue was smaller than in previous years, which meant that attendees could have genuine ... Read more

Oxford Net Zero announces affiliation with Reuben College
Oxford Net Zero announces affiliation with Reuben College

Oxford Net Zero is pleased to announce an affiliation with Reuben College. This new strategic partnership will allow us to collaborate more closely on environmental change, which we are both working to address as a core objective. Professor ... Read more

See more news and events