Global Net Zero progress

CRITICAL DECADE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: GLOBAL WARMING IN numbers

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide vital and authoritative evidence on climate change to policymakers, governments, and non-state actors. However, the huge time and effort that goes into them means that they are only updated every 5–10 years, which leaves a critical information gap in the intervening years, particularly as the world is rapidly approaching its climate stabilisation targets.

To address this gap, a group of climate scientists from across 17 countries, all closely involved in the latest IPCC report cycle, formed the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) initiative. This group, which includes leadership Oxford Net Zero researchers, provides annual updates to a set of key ‘indicators’ of the climate system, using methods fully consistent with the most recent IPCC assessment cycle, and the latest available information and data. The IGCC’s open data portal provides a user-friendly means of tracking and understanding climate change and its progression.

In the IGCC’s most recent analysis, our indicators show that, since the IPCC’s climate report was published, human influence on the climate has continued at an unprecedented rate. Greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, cutting deeply into the time remaining to limit warming to 1.5°C without overshoot. You can read the full paper by Forster, et al. in Earth System Science Data.

TRACKING NET ZERO PROGRESS: How aligned are we on the global path to net zero?

“Net zero isn’t only a clear and simple target, it’s what the planet needs in order to halt the rise in temperatures.”

Dr Steve Smith, Executive Director, Oxford Net Zero

Together with the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the Data-Driven EnviroLab and NewClimate Institute, Oxford Net Zero established the Net Zero Tracker, a collaboration that tracks net zero commitments made by every nation and the world’s largest regions, cities and companies. It is the only independent tool that provides a comprehensive global view of net zero across all of these entities.

The Net Zero Tracker (NZT) collects data on (i) targets set; and (ii) the factors that indicate whether those targets are robust – essentially, how serious companies and governments are about meaningfully cutting their net emissions to zero.

Users can investigate specific entities, sectors or regions; take a global snapshot, accurate at that moment; or evaluate progress and key trends over time by examining the tracker’s annual ‘Net Zero Stocktake’. The NZT’s Data Explorer provides a simple way to interrogate data, focusing on specific entity types, regions and/or integrity markers.

Net zero targets have proliferated over the last several years, especially in the wake of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C (2018). But the accountability and transparency architecture was initially unable to keep up, making it challenging for stakeholders to differentiate between targets that come with robust plans and those consisting of mere rhetoric. That is where the NZT steps in. It is helping to build and strengthen that architecture so that interested parties from all walks of life can understand, evaluate and assess the state of play at global, regional or sectoral levels.

Take a look at the NZT’s latest outputs here.

Members of Oxford Net Zero also contribute to the Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, an open-access resource tracking and assessing climate policies and regulations in over 30 countries. Through evaluating policies against hundreds of possible data points, the Monitor considers the ambition, stringency, degree of implementation, and comprehensive coverage of climate rules.

The Monitor is powered by a partnership between the Climate Policy Hub, an Oxford-based initiative which is part of the Oxford Net Zero strategic cluster, and a pro-bono network of more than 45 leading law firms worldwide. The Hub was launched with a grant from the Oxford Martin School and is a collaboration between the Blavatnik School of Government and the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme.

Read more about the Monitor and explore the 2024 data here.

findings (By criteria)

Data from the 2023 report: Assessing the status and trends of net zero target setting across countries, sub-national governments and companies 

Focus on Integrity

 

Until the end of 2022, entities with a net zero target could assert the credibility of their plans despite lacking specific elements. This was due to a lack of universally recognised credibility requirements. A new report titled ‘Integrity Matters: Net Zero Commitments by Businesses, Financial Institutions, Cities and Regions’ was published at the 2022 UN climate summit, COP27, setting out 10 recommendations for a net zero target. These include having regular interim targets (beginning in 2025), not using offset credits, committing to end fossil fuel usage, and outlining a socially and ecologically fair transition to net zero.

These recommendations will frame future UN discussions over net zero, acting as universal markers all net zero targets can be compared against. Thus, no company, city or region can claim to not know what a credible target is. The remit of this report did not include national governments, but the recommendations logically apply still.

UNFCCC Integrity Matters: Net Zero Commitments by Businesses, Financial Institutions, Cities and Regions’ Report: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf

 

 

Net Zero target Setting

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    • Largest growth (123%) in net zero target setting by companies from 2021-2023
      • From 417 to 929 publicly listed companies
    • Rate of growth for nations, states & regions, and cities has slowed
      • But net zero targets for nations now represent 88% of global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions
      • Targets for states & regions now cover a population of 1,457 million, compared with 497 million in December 2020
      • Targets for cities now cover a total population of 787 million, compared with 640 million in December 2020
    • 1,475 entities now have a net zero target out of 4,000 entities tracked, up from 769 in December 2022.
Status of Net zero targets: Countries

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  • Substantial increase in net zero targets underpinned by legislation and policy documents.
      • Now 15% net zero targets are enshrined in law, compared to <5% in 2020.
      • 60% of net zero targets are in policy documents, compared to <10% in 2020.
  • Represents 75% of all GHG emissions covered by national net zero targets.
Status of Emission Reduction Targets: Non-state entities

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  • Significant share of subnational and corporate entities lack an emissions reduction target.
  • 1/3 of GHG emissions are covered by subnational state & regional level net zero targets from the included 25 countries.
    • Substantial lack of subnational emission reduction targets for regions that account for more than 40% of national emissions, despite national net zero plans in place
  • 41% of states & regions have no emission reduction target.
  • 49% of cities globally have no emission reduction target.
  • 37% of companies globally have no emission reduction target.

 

 
Integrity in subnational and corporate net zero targets
  • Limited signs of improvement in subnational and corporate net zero integrity
  • Very few subnational and corporate entities meet UNFCCC Race to Zero Criteria:
    • This includes setting a specific net zero pledge, including all GHGs, publishing a plan, publishing annual progress, and clarifying offset conditions
    • 3% of states & regions
    • 3% of cities
    • 4% of companies
  • Key concerns of integrity center on the inclusion of scope 3 emissions and unregulated use of offsets
    • 13% of corporate net zero targets qualify offset conditions.
    • 37% of corporate net zero targets cover scope 3 emissions.
    • Scope 3 refers to a company’s emissions from across its value chain.

 

Use of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

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  • More entities have clarified their intention to use carbon dioxide removals within their value chain.
    • 69% of countries plan to use carbon dioxide removals (CDR)
    • 58% of states & nations plan to use CDR.
    • 36% of cities plan to use CDR.
    • 26% of companies plan to use CDR.
  • There are concerns about an overdependence of CDR by non-state actors to reach their net zero targets from the international community.

 

 

Fossil Fuels
  • Despite having net zero pledges, no major producer countries or companies have committed to phasing out fossil fuels.
  • 67% increase in fossil fuel companies pledging net zero targets
    • From 51 in June 2022 to 75 in June 2023
  • But no fossil fuel companies are making the necessary commitments to transition away from fossil fuel extraction or production.