To have a realistic chance of limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, the world must reach net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the early 2050s, alongside rapid, deep, and sustained reductions in other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. All GHG emissions should reach net zero about two decades later. Yet net zero – the only solution to halting human-caused climate change – has entered a more contested phase. Ten years after 195 nations signed the Paris Agreement, it has become a political battleground, most visibly in the US. Still, the global signal endures in the lead up to the COP30 in Belém: net zero targets continue to spread, and standards are tightening. Progress on national targets is especially critical in 2025, as countries submit new or updated NDCs for 2035 (NDC 3.0) in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement’s ‘ratchet mechanism’.
This report assesses whole-economy net zero target-setting and evaluates more than 4,000 entities on key elements of integrity — essentially, whether targets and strategies contain key components, such as plans and interim goals, needed for deep decarbonisation over the next few decades. This year, we also examine how net zero targets address the climate-nature nexus.
The 2025 Stocktake was prepared by: Saskia Straub, Sybrig Smit, Louise Bammel, John Lang, Takeshi Kuramochi, Helen Tatlow, Diego Cristobal Manya-Gutierrez, Frances Green, Thomas Hale, Angel Hsu, Denise Siu and Steve Smith.
The Net Zero Tracker is a collaboration between Oxford Net Zero, the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the Data-Driven EnviroLab and the NewClimate Institute.
