The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influence on extreme events. We propose that using forecast models that successfully predicted the event in question could increase the robustness of such estimates. Using a successful forecast means we can be confident that the model is able to faithfully represent the characteristics of the specific extreme event. We use this forecast-based methodology to estimate the direct radiative impact of increased CO2 concentrations (one component, but not the entirety, of human influence) on the European heatwave of February 2019.
Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability
Publication details
The urgency of zero
Research paper
Allen, Myles
2021
Latest news

Oxford Net Zero partners with AXA XL on research in India, Mexico and Kenya
Oxford Net Zero is excited to announce that it is working with the insurance company AXA XL, the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society (InSIS), and the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment to conduct research on private sector ... Read more

Finance, Fossil Fuels and $10 coffee: Reflections on COP29
As we begin a new year, Oxford Net Zero looks back on the highs and lows of November's climate summit in Baku. In some ways, this COP was different. The venue was smaller than in previous years, which meant that attendees could have genuine ... Read more

Oxford Net Zero announces affiliation with Reuben College
Oxford Net Zero is pleased to announce an affiliation with Reuben College. This new strategic partnership will allow us to collaborate more closely on environmental change, which we are both working to address as a core objective. Professor ... Read more
See more news and events