Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.