Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Feb 8, 2024

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

Publication details
Theme(s)
Net zero & sustainable development
Type(s)
Comment
Author(s)
Brophy, Aoife Fankhauser, Sam Jenkins, Stuart McGivern, Alexis Srivastav, Sugandha
Year(s)
2024
Nature Energy

Latest news

Oxford Net Zero report assesses the voluntary standards landscape
Oxford Net Zero report assesses the voluntary standards landscape

Oxford Net Zero’s Engagement Team have released a new report today, comprehensively assessing guidance for net zero across 37 different guidance documents, disclosure instruments and assessment frameworks. The team developed more than sixty ... Read more

Job Opening at ONZ: Youth Climate Training Assistant
Job Opening at ONZ: Youth Climate Training Assistant

The Oxford Net Zero Engagement Team (based at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment) is looking for a motivated individual to support the team 8 hours a week for 12 weeks (96 hours in total) in the second delivery of the Youth ... Read more

Onshore geological carbon storage has potential in the UK, but key knowledge and regulatory gaps remain – ONZ report
Onshore geological carbon storage has potential in the UK, but key knowledge and regulatory gaps remain – ONZ report

A new report by a team of Oxford Net Zero researchers reviews the current state of knowledge on onshore geological carbon storage (GCS) and its feasibility in the UK. Read more

See more news and events