OUR KEY outputs
This page brings together some of the key pieces – journal articles, reports, briefings and tools – that members of Oxford Net Zero have published since our programme was established. For a full list, visit our Publications page.
The meaning of net zero and how to get it right
Sam Fankhauser, Stephen M. Smith, Myles Allen, Kaya Axelsson, Thomas Hale, Cameron Hepburn, J. Michael Kendall, Radhika Khosla, Javier Lezaun, Eli Mitchell-Larson, Michael Obersteiner, Lavanya Rajamani, Rosalind Rickaby, Nathalie Seddon and Thom Wetzer
The concept of net-zero carbon emissions has emerged from physical climate science. However, it is operationalized through social, political and economic systems. We identify seven attributes of net zero, which are important to make it a successful framework for climate action. The seven attributes highlight the urgency of emission reductions, which need to be front-loaded, and of coverage of all emission sources, including currently difficult ones. The attributes emphasize the need for social and environmental integrity. This means carbon dioxide removals should be used cautiously and the use of carbon offsets should be regulated effectively. Net zero must be aligned with broader sustainable development objectives, which implies an equitable net-zero transition, socio-ecological sustainability and the pursuit of broad economic opportunities.
Getting the message right on nature-based solutions to climate change
Nathalie Seddon, Alison Smith, Pete Smith, Isabel Key, Alexandre Chausson, Cécile Girardin, Jo House, Shilpi Srivastava, Beth Turner
Nature-based solutions (NbS)—solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature—have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach that can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development. Although well-designed NbS can deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting for carbon sequestration. There are serious concerns that this is distracting from the need to rapidly phase out use of fossil fuels and protect existing intact ecosystems. There are also concerns that the expansion of forestry framed as a climate change mitigation solution is coming at the cost of carbon rich and biodiverse native ecosystems and local resource rights. Here, the authors discuss the promise and pitfalls of the NbS framing and its current political traction, and they present recommendations on how to get the message right.
Net Zero Tracker
The Net Zero Stocktake, an annual report published by the Net Zero Tracker since 2022, assesses progress in setting and strengthening whole-economy net zero targets, and evaluates more than 4,000 entities on integrity criteria – i.e. whether plans and strategies contain the key components for deep decarbonisation. The most recent Stocktake was published in 2025. Editions from 2024, 2023 and 2022 are available on the Net Zero Tracker website. In 2021 the team published a Stocktake focusing on entities in G20 countries. The Net Zero Tracker is a consortium comprising Oxford Net Zero, the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, the Data-Driven EnviroLab and the NewClimate Institute.
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal
Led by Stephen M. Smith, Gregory Nemet, Jan C. Minx, Oliver Geden, Matthew J. Gidden, Morgan Edwards and William F. Lamb
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal is the first accessible, global and independent scientific assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). The international, multi-institution State of CDR team collects and analyses data to understand where, how, and how much carbon is being removed. The aim is to make the complex research in this emerging area useful to policymakers, researchers and the public who are shaping the future of CDR and climate action. Edition 1 was published in 2023, with Edition 2 following in 2024. Edition 3 is due later in 2026.
Can ‘Net Zero’ still be an instrument of climate justice?
Radhika Khosla, Javier Lezaun, Alexis McGivern, Jessica Omukuti
Is it time to ‘rouse ourselves from the net- zero hangover’ (Buck 2021, p 19) and find a better vehicle for climate justice? Or can the scientific and policy mechanisms that net zero has set in motion—and the broader scope of climate ambition they connote—still serve as an effective instrument for those aspirations? The authors’ view is that current initiatives to tighten net zero governance offer a belated but real opportunity to reverse the trends that have de-coupled net zero target-setting from the pursuit of inclusive, climate compatible and sustainable development. They start by identifying those trends, before proposing ways of undoing them.
Oxford Offsetting Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon Offsetting (Revised 2024)
Kaya Axelsson, Audrey Wagner, Injy Johnstone, Myles Allen, Ben Caldecott, Nick Eyre, Sam Fankhauser, Thomas Hale, Cameron Hepburn, Conor Hickey, Radhika Khosla, Stephen Lezak, Eli Mitchell-Larson, Yadvinder Malhi, Nathalie Seddon, Alison Smith, Stephen M. Smith
Carbon offsetting schemes are frequently used to help organisations achieve net zero carbon emissions. However, current approaches are unlikely to deliver the level of emissions reduction needed to achieve global climate goals. Well thought-out carbon offsetting can contribute to net zero strategies, particularly in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, but if not done well, offsetting can result in ‘greenwashing’ and create unintended negative impacts for both people and the environment. The revised Principles underscore the core components of the original Principles, calling for a major course-correction in carbon markets and offsetting practices, while also clarifying aspects of the Principles for net zero alignment in areas where authors felt further detail would be beneficial to users.
Turning a groundswell of climate action into ground rules for net zero
Thomas Hale, Thom Wetzer, Selam Kidane Abebe, Myles Allen, Amir Amel-Zadeh, John Armour, Kaya Axelsson, Ben Caldecott, Lucilla Dias, Sam Fankhauser, Benjamin Franta, Cameron Hepburn, Kennedy Mbeva, Lavanya Rajamani, Steve Smith, Rupert Stuart-Smith
Following a groundswell of voluntary net-zero targets by companies, regulators are increasingly introducing mandatory rules. If governments can overcome the barriers to rigour, coherence and fairness, such mandatory ‘ground rules’ have the potential to overcome the obstructionism that holds back a just climate transition.
The Carbon Removal Budget: theory and practice
Ben Caldecott and Injy Johnstone
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a necessary complement to emissions reductions to achieve a state of global net zero emissions and stabilise future warming. Despite its utility, CDR remains poorly understood. Due to a range of constraints, CDR is a fundamentally finite resource, which we currently do not have enough of to achieve and go beyond global net zero. This has wide-ranging but underexplored implications for the technical and economic feasibility of our collective net zero transition. At the same time, both the opportunity and obligation to undertake CDR are not equally distributed amongst actors and geographies. As a result, there are ongoing questions as to how we can increase the supply of quality CDR whilst at the same time ensure equitable distribution of that same CDR, both within and between countries and non-state actors. To explore these phenomena, we introduce and define the concept of a Carbon Removal Budget (CRB), illustrate how it can apply to different contexts and scales, and distinguish it from the related but distinct concept of the carbon budget.
Kaya Axelsson, Claire Wigg, Matilda Becker
Today’s global net-zero governance landscape fails to recognize some of the most important strategic actions companies can take to mitigate climate change. Standards have been built primarily to guide companies in setting targets and to help companies’ track emissions reductions in their annual inventories. As guidance is updated, debates have arisen about how companies can report efforts to reduce wider emissions in society. In response, we review how a focus on emissions reductions within the value chain is critical but insufficient for recognizing and rewarding the full scale of opportunities companies have for changing wider systems. In addition to inventory reporting and target setting across the greenhouse gas ‘Scopes’, a second reporting track is needed to compare and reward companies’ efforts across their ‘Spheres of Influence’. This article presents a framework offering a meaningful and separate place for companies to report efforts to leverage (a) their products, to empower others to avoid emissions; (b) their purchasing power and (c) their policy advocacy.
Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks
Myles R. Allen, David J. Frame, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan P. Gillett, Giacomo Grassi, Jonathan M. Gregory, William Hare, Jo House, Chris Huntingford, Stuart Jenkins, Chris D. Jones, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, H. Damon Matthews, Malte Meinshausen, Nicolai Meinshausen, Glen P. Peters, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Sarah Raper, Joeri Rogelj, Peter A. Stott, Susan Solomon, Thomas F. Stocker, Andrew J. Weaver, Kirsten Zickfeld
Achieving net-zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO2 emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO2 removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some ‘passive’ CO2 uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth owing to CO2 fertilization, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions. By including passive CO2 uptake, nominal net-zero emissions would not halt global warming, undermining the Paris Agreement. Here we discuss measures to address this problem, to ensure residual fossil fuel use does not cause further global warming.
Convergences between green growth and net zero: lessons from African countries
Jessica Omukuti, Javier Lezaun, Hope Njoroge, Yusuf Olalere, Jose Maria Valenzuela
The continent of Africa’s right to development has been reinforced by recent geopolitical events such as Covid-19 that have placed issues including poverty alleviation and energy sovereignty at the forefront of development debates. Through this, the need for green growth has emerged, with many countries on the continent implementing whole-of-economy or sectoral green growth strategies or initiatives. The need for the continent to transition to net zero, despite its limited contribution to historical emissions, has also emerged, with some African countries such as Nigeria and corporates from across the continent setting and implementing net zero targets. This report critically reviews the convergences between net zero and green growth in Africa. It uses case studies from three African countries—Kenya, Malawi and South Africa—to demonstrate how actions to achieve global net zero and African green growth targets can reinforce each other.
Geologically Balanced Fuels: Equity, justice and public perceptions
Emily Cox, Jessica Omukuti, Millicent Sutton, Stuart Jenkins, Kai Jiang, Chigozie Nweke-Eze, Tom Kettlety
Aviation is important for sustainable development, helping deliver goods and services to places quicker and more efficiently. In 2022, aviation accounted for only 2% of global CO2 emissions. Although demand for aviation is projected by the industry to grow considerably up to 2030 , the aviation sector is considered to be one that will be ‘hard to decarbonise’ but needing to decarbonise nevertheless. As of 2018 (i.e. before the disruption by the COVID-19 pandemic), only 2–4% of the global population flew internationally, meaning that 1% of the world population emitted 50% of CO2 from commercial aviation. This demonstrates the urgent need to identify ways to decarbonise the aviation sector equitably. The aviation sector provides a unique opportunity to examine questions around what types of net zero outcome are accepted, valued and championed, and how principles of equity and justice can be operationalised in this sector.
Led by the Climate Policy Hub
The Oxford Climate Policy Monitor assesses how policies and regulations align with climate goals. It provides an open-access mapping and expert assessment of net zero regulations in key domains across key economies. In 2025, the Monitor team assessed 37 jurisdictions in six domains: carbon credits; climate-related disclosure; green prudential rules; methane abatement; public procurement; and transition planning. Download the 2025 Annual Report here. The Climate Policy Hub was established with a grant from the Oxford Martin School and is a collaboration between the Blavatnik School of Government and the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme. It is part of the Oxford Net Zero strategic cluster.